Por Agustín Maza

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Los equipos técnicos del Ministerio de Economía y del FMI dejaron trascender ayer comunicados con guiños sobre un “avance constructivo” en las negociaciones para recalibrar el programa vigente ante el impacto de la sequía, en un intento por llevar calma al mercado. Durante la semana habrá varias reuniones virtuales entre ambas partes para acelerar las tratativas, en las que Argentina busca fundamentalmente un adelanto de los desembolsos previstos hasta fin de año, en medio de la escasez de reservas y las crecientes expectativas de devaluación. El Gobierno continúa con el ajuste del gasto primario, un gesto que se suma a la fuerte suba de tasas y del ritmo de crawling peg.

Ante la consulta de BAE Negocios sobre las conversaciones en curso, un vocero del organismo indicó: “Los equipos del FMI y del Ministerio de Economía continúan trabajando constructivamente para fortalecer el programa respaldado en el contexto de la sequía muy severa. Las discusiones están en curso de manera virtual y se espera que los equipos tengan varias reuniones esta semana para avanzar con el programa”. Los funcionarios del Palacio de Hacienda al frente de las charlas con el equipo de Luis Cubeddu son el viceministro, Gabriel Rubinstein, y el jefe de asesores, Leonardo Madcur. 

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Por su parte, fuentes cercanas al ministro de Economía, Sergio Massa, consultadas por este medio coincidieron en que “avanzan constructivamente en dirección a rebalancear el programa por la severa sequía”. Esa adaptación, entienden cerca del ministro, implica cambios en los fundamentos macroeconómicos pero también en las metas de acumulación de reservas, déficit primario y emisión monetaria, aunque la intención es no dar lugar a que eso se interprete como un desbande fiscal.

La gestión más urgente de Economía es para que se adelanten a junio los desembolsos previstos para ese mes, septiembre y diciembre que en total suman unos USD10.800 millones. Lo disruptivo de esa posibilidad es que el país no cumplió en el primer trimestre con los objetivos del acuerdo, que son los que gatillan estos giros según el programa de facilidades extendidas firmado en 2022. 

Los fondos son utilizados para el pago del fallido stand by de Mauricio Macri, que en el segundo semestre suman USD11.400 millones y son difíciles de postergar sin entrar en atrasos con el organismo. Eso implica que un adelanto de los desembolsos sólo generará un alivio transitorio para las arcas del BCRA, junto a una mayor utilización del swap con China y la búsqueda de financiamiento para importaciones provenientes de Brasil.

En el Palacio de Hacienda habían celebrado el último cable que emitió el miércoles la agencia Bloomberg, el cual consignaba que el Gobierno de Estados Unidos dará su apoyo en el Directorio del organismo a las gestiones del equipo de Massa, quien viajará a Washington para firmar el entendimiento. También se sumó el respaldo de Brasil, expresado por su presidente Lula Da Silva. 

Para la consultora Sarandí, la luz verde del Fondo implicará un aire positivo para la economía local. “En materia macro aliviará la contingencia climática, suavizando la liquidez de dólares a la espera de mayores ventas externas sobre la parte final del año. En el plano productivo dará fluidez a las importaciones de bienes, para no frenar completamente la economía. En relación a las expectativas permitirá descomprimir las presiones alcistas sobre los mercado paralelos de dólar, si se evalúa que el Gobierno no escatimará esfuerzos para contrarrestar una corrida. Por último, la habilitación del FMI podría funcionar como ancla institucional, amortiguando parte de la incertidumbre que suele prevalecer en momentos de elevada beligerancia política”, sostuvo la casa de estudios.

Continúa el ajuste

En paralelo, Massa avanza en el sendero de ajuste del gasto primario, que cayó 5,5% real durante el primer trimestre, a pesar de que la caída de la recaudación por derechos de exportación se desplomaron. Según el relevamiento semanal de Analytica, en la cuarta semana de abril las erogaciones marcaron una retracción de 2,9% respecto a igual semana de marzo y de 14,2% en la comparación interanual.

En ese sentido, el Ente Nacional Regulador de la Electricidad (Enre) hizo oficial los nuevos cuadros tarifarios que regirán en el Amba desde mayo en donde se quitaron los subsidios a las tarifas de luz a los sectores de mayores ingresos. Más de 5 millones de usuarios, 34% del total, verán un aumento de 93% a partir de las boletas que lleguen en junio. La proyección oficial es que los subsidios energéticos finalicen 2023 en menos de 1% del PBI, por debajo del tope de 1,5% que había puesto el FMI.