Por Agustín Maza

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El FMI volvió a evitar pronunciarse sobre la posibilidad de adelantar a Argentina los desembolsos previstos para el segundo semestre, los cuales suman unos USD10.800 millones. También señalaron que las negociaciones actuales están centradas en recalibrar el programa para adaptarlo al impacto de la sequía. En efecto, el principal foco de las discusiones entre los funcionarios del organismo y los del Ministerio de Economía es ponerle números al costo de las inclemencias climáticas.

La vocera del Fondo, Julie Kozack, se refirió ayer en conferencia de prensa a que las discusiones en curso están enfocadas en “fortalecer el programa teniendo en cuenta el impacto de la histórica sequía”. La declaración fue en línea de los crípticos “avances constructivos” de los últimos comunicados filtrados por el organismo. En concreto, Argentina necesita establecer nuevos fundamentos y objetivos de cara a la quinta revisión del acuerdo, de la que depende un desembolso de casi USD4.000 millones. Es que por el nuevo escenario el país no cumplió con las metas de déficit fiscal y acumulación de reservas pactadas para el primer trimestre, condiciones fundamentales para acceder a dichos fondos.

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En ese sentido, la funcionaria evitó hacer declaraciones sobre las intenciones que manifestó en las últimas semanas el Palacio de Hacienda de adelantar los giros previstos para septiembre y diciembre, por USD6.800 millones, correspondientes a las próximas evaluaciones. En efecto, en la cartera económica también se limitaron a decir que continúan las reuniones virtuales encabezadas por el viceministro de Economía, Gabriel Rubinstein, y el jefe de asesores, Leonardo Madcur, para “rebalancear” el acuerdo.

La principal discusión es el costo de la sequía. El Ministerio de Economía calculó que las exportaciones sufrirán una caída de al menos USD18.000 millones, aunque el mercado estimó un desplome de USD21.800 millones. Del otro lado, el Fondo es reacio a aceptar una flexibilización del acuerdo que implique un desbande fiscal y monetario. En su última revisión proyectó una reducción de las ventas externas de USD6.500 millones y pidió no utilizar reservas para intervenir en el mercado cambiario, herramienta que igual usó el BCRA para calmar los dólares financieros tras la corrida que llevó el blue a tocar los $500.

El ministro de Economía, Sergio Massa, había dado este martes una pista del cronograma de las negociaciones durante su participación en el AmCham Summit. Allí dijo que la prioridad es alcanzar un nuevo marco para el programa mientras buscan aliviar las reservas con la utilización del swap chino para importaciones y alcanzar un acuerdo con Brasil en ese sentido, para luego centrarse en “diseñar los eventuales desembolsos o reembolsos con el FMI”. En el Palacio de Hacienda consideran que Estados Unidos dará su apoyo a Argentina, voluntad clave en el Directorio. 

El titular del Palacio de Hacienda remarcó que “está todo sobre la mesa”, pero afirmó que es “irrenunciable” la intervención de la autoridad monetaria en un año electoral, cuando suelen acelerarse las dolarizaciones de carteras. Más en un contexto de escasez de reservas y crecientes expectativas de devaluación. La prioridad del Gobierno es llegar a las elecciones sin una devaluación brusca del tipo de cambio oficial.

Por otro lado, Julie Kozak comentó que la subdirectora del Fondo, Gita Gopinath, tiene en agenda visitar Chile y Brasil este mes. Lo llamativo es que en el contexto actual la número dos del organismo no visite Argentina. Massa viajará a Estados Unidos para ponerle la firma al nuevo programa cuando las negociaciones estén cerradas.