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El ministro de Economía, Sergio Massa, anunciará este lunes a las 18 un incremento en los márgenes para compras con tarjeta de crédito para más de 20 millones de argentinos, luego de que la semana pasada el BCRA redujera el costo de financiación de los saldos impagos y la baja en la tasa de interés del Ahora 12 que oficializó la Secretaría de Comercio. Ante la incapacidad de mejorar los ingresos de una forma considerable a partir de un aumento en el gasto público, la decisión del equipo económico se enmarca en un contexto de salarios golpeados y una inflación que será 90 puntos superior al promedio de los últimos años electorales.

El titular del Palacio de Hacienda aplicará un incremento del 30% en los márgenes de compras en cuotas con tarjetas de crédito, un 25% de suba para las operaciones en un pago y 25% en los márgenes de adelanto en cuenta corriente a pymes. Desde la cartera afirmaron que el objetivo de la medida es sostener el consumo, aumentar la inversión y disminuir el impacto de la sequía.

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Según los números que manejan en despachos oficiales, más de 20 millones de argentinos accederán al beneficio. "Por cada $10.000 de disponibilidad en un pago, se suman $3.000 más. Si una familia contaba con $50.000 de límite, ahora tendrá $65.000", explicaron.

Esta decisión forma parte de un paquete que comenzó a delinearse la semana pasada, luego de las reuniones que mantuvo Massa y su equipo tras conocerse que la inflación de abril fue del 8,4% mensual. En busca de evitar una mayor dolarización, el BCRA subió el lunes los rendimientos de Plazos Fijos y Leliqs al 154,9% efectivo anual que equivale al 8,1% mensual. Sin embargo, la autoridad monetaria también dispuso reducir en dos puntos la tasa para la financiación de saldos de tarjetas de crédito impagos para personas humanas que desde junio será del 86% nominal anual.

En ese sentido, la Secretaría de Comercio redujo en 9 puntos porcentuales el costo de financiación del Ahora 12, que pasó a 72,75% nominal anual. En este caso también por debajo de las expectativas de inflación y de la tasa de interés de los Plazos Fijos. De hecho, el incremento en los márgenes de tarjetas de crédito que decidió Economía está especialmente ideado para impulsar las compras a través del programa oficial de cuotas, en el cual participan productos de origen nacional.

El foco que pone el Gobierno para mejorar las condiciones de crédito está vinculado a las restricciones para aumentar el gasto público. El FMI pide acelerar el ajuste y la sequía implicó una fuerte pérdida de ingresos que limita la posibilidad de agrandar el gasto.

La única herramienta con la que cuenta el Tesoro es financiarse con los Adelantos Transitorios del BCRA, que ya suman $670.000 millones desde que inició el año. El problema de utilizar la maquinita, entienden economistas y en el Palacio de Hacienda, es que pone presión a la inflación.

En ese contexto, el Frente de Todos llegará a las próximas elecciones con una inflación interanual por encima de los tres dígitos, lo que implicará el valor más alto para un año electoral desde la salida de la hiperinflación en 1991. Al respecto, Ecolatina señaló: “Para dar cuenta de la magnitud, la suba de precios se ubica 70 puntos por encima del último año electoral (2021), 60 puntos por encima de 2019 y 90 puntos por encima del promedio anual del resto de los años electorales analizados (25%)”.

La inflación pone en jaque el plan electoral del Gobierno

La consultora resaltó que esa dinámica derivó en una caída de los ingresos y un empeoramiento de los niveles de pobreza, que llegará a las elecciones con más de un 40% de la población bajo esa condición. “Por un lado, el salario real (formal e informal) se ubica en 2023 en el nivel más bajo en contraste a todos los años electorales, previendo que este año sea el sexto consecutivo de caída. En este sentido, luego del último pico alcanzado a mediados de 2017, el salario real formal se ubica actualmente en niveles 19% inferiores hasta marzo, mientras que el deterioro del salario real informal para el mismo periodo alcanza el 42%”, detallaron.

“Por otra parte, el valor del salario mínimo, la Asignación Universal por Hijo (AUH) y la jubilación mínima exhiben asimismo una notable merma en su poder adquisitivo: el Salario Mínimo Vital y Móvil (SMVyM) perdió un 37% de poder de compra respecto a 10 años atrás (elecciones de 2013), la jubilación mínima un 24% (aun contemplando los bonos actuales) y la Asignación Universal por Hijo (AUH) un 18%”, concluyó Ecolatina.