or Juan Marcos Pollio

La actividad cerró el primer trimestre en caída, según proyecciones privadas. De hecho, las estimaciones indican que, a marzo de este año, el PBI per cápita cayó a su nivel más bajo en 19 años y cerró similar al del primer trimestre del 2005. Los analistas coinciden en que la economía todavía no tocó su piso y que el segundo trimestre será el tramo más difícil del 2024, tanto para la actividad como para el poder adquisitivo. Para el resto del año hay dudas sobre la posibilidad de un rebote en V porque los motores de crecimiento siguen sin definirse: los sectores ligados al consumo cerrarán el año en rojo, mientras que la inversión privada sigue sin aparecer. 

Desde Fundación Capital estimaron en base a los datos adelantados de actividad económica del primer trimestre: "El PBI se habría contraído un 5,8% interanual, lo que en términos trimestrales implica un descenso del 3,6% frente al último cuarto del 2023". Como resultado, el PBI per cápita para el acumulado entre enero y marzo se halló en su nivel más bajo desde 2005, a lo que se suma el nivel de ingresos más bajo en 20 años, según sus cálculos.

"Los peores meses en materia de actividad serían marzo, abril y mayo, en un contexto de fuerte pérdida de poder adquisitivo todavía no compensada y un desplome de la inversión, frente a los menores gastos de capital y la falta de un horizonte despejado hacia delante", explicó en su último informe la consultora. En este sentido, proyectaron que el PBI toque piso durante ese periodo, exhibiendo una baja del 3,7% interanual y un 0,4% trimestral, desestacionalizado.

A pesar de que el equipo de Fundación Capital proyectó una ligera mejora de la actividad desde el tercer trimestre, aclararon que "la forma que tomará la recuperación difícilmente sea en forma de 'V' (con un rápido rebote), en un contexto donde no se perciben drivers claros de crecimiento. De hecho, a los salarios les costará ganarle a la inflación, la viabilidad sociopolítica del programa económico aún no es clara y la salida del cepo cambiario no será sencilla". Por lo tanto, estimaron una caída del PBI para 2024 del 3,1%, número que se eleva al 4,3% si no se tiene en cuenta el impulso del agro. 

 

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Una caída similar (3%) calculó la Fundación Mediterránea, con el detalle de una baja del consumo del 6%. Desde el think tank liberal opinaron que "en términos macro, ordenar mejor las políticas y modificar instrumentos no habrá de evitar una caída del Producto", aunque sí podría lograrse una "sensación térmica" diferente en la segunda parte del año. 

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De todas maneras, reconocieron que "el rebote en V no luce garantizado, por el impacto sobre el sector de las construcciones del achicamiento de la brecha cambiaria, los problemas de empleo y un salario real que, después de una recuperación inicial, en promedio se habrá de enfrentar a las limitaciones que impone la baja productividad del país". Y agregaron que "las condiciones actuales parecen bosquejar una forma de 'pipa' de Nike, siendo clave para torcer esa historia lo que ocurra con la entrada de capitales".

Una problemática similar hallaron desde Fiel: "Los niveles actuales en nuestro país de productividad son consistentes con una caída importante de los salarios reales de equilibrio –porque, a la larga, los salarios reales dependen de la productividad- y, lo que es más importante, esa caída de productividad e ingresos se ha registrado, entre otras cosas, a partir de un deterioro de la formalidad".

Por este motivo, el análisis firmado por el economista Juan Lois Bour agregó que "la mirada de la productividad es relevante para entender qué puede significar un crecimiento en V que sea un simple rebote: con ello no hay margen para una recuperación sostenida de los ingresos reales, y el fracaso de la salida estará a la vista, a menos que se introduzcan reformas profundas".