Por Julieta Romero

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La actividad económica anotó su tercera caída consecutiva en enero de 2024 con una baja de 1,2% en la medición desestacionalizada, según el Indec. De este modo, el PBI acumuló un desplome de 5,8% desde octubre del año pasado. El resultado negativo se explicó, desde el punto de vista de la demanda, por la caída del consumo, debido al menor poder adquisitivo de salarios y jubilaciones por el alza inflacionaria; el ajuste fiscal, que permitió el superávit del primer bimestre del año; y una fuerte caída en la inversión pública y privada, por la incertidumbre macro. Por el lado de la oferta, el agro, ya recuperado de la sequía, y la minería, evitaron que contracción fuese mayor. 

El Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica (EMAE) de enero, publicado por el Indec, tuvo su último resultado positivo en octubre de 2023 cuando registró una suba marginal del 0,2% mensual, sostenido en plena campaña electoral por el consumo de cobertura. En noviembre la baja fue de 2% y en diciembre se profundizó a una del 2,8%, en un mes marcado por la devaluación y el salto inflacionario. En el arranque del 2024, la baja de la actividad fue del 1,2% mensual y de 4,3% interanual. 

 

TAMBIÉN TE PUEDE INTERESAR:Milei disertó en el IEFA Latam Forum 2024: “El ajuste tiene mucho de motosierra y licuadora”El PBI acumuló una caída del 5,8% desde octubre

Según la consultora ACM, "el inicio de este año es acorde a las expectativas, continuando la tendencia descendente observada en el último trimestre de 2023". La consultora aclaró además que "las caídas más pronunciadas se observan en sectores ligados al consumo interno, como son la construcción, la industria manufacturera y el comercio, los cuales, en conjunto, contribuyen en un 76% al declive observado". 

En detalle, los desplomes interanuales fueron de 11,3% para la industria y de 8,2% para el comercio. Entre ambos sectores aportaron 2,7 puntos a la caída de la actividad en el mes: 1,7 puntos y 1 punto, respectivamente.

La consultora LCG destacó que "la economía se encuentra en niveles de actividad similares a los de marzo 2021, apenas salida de la pandemia del Covid".

Por el contrario, ya no quedan rastros de la sequía en la actividad agropecuaria que creció un 11,1% interanual. Otro caso positivo fue la minería que subió un 5,2% en el mismo período. Para ACM, "los sectores de mayor competitividad evidenciaron un dinamismo superior, mitigando en parte la contracción de la actividad económica".

La recuperación del agro mantiene a la actividad sin mayores caídas

Por el lado de la demanda, la devaluación de diciembre y la inflación que llegó al 25,5% en ese mes y al 20,6% en enero, provocaron la pérdida del poder adquisitivo de los salarios y jubilaciones que llevó a una caída de las ventas en el mercado interno. Según la Cámara de Comercio Argentina, la baja en el consumo se profundizó en febrero con un deterioro del 3,5% interanual. En los tres meses de gobierno de Javier Milei, las jubilaciones cayeron un 29,4% real, mientras que los salarios perdieron un 20,7% real entre diciembre y enero, según el investigador de la CTA – Autónoma, Luis Campos. 

En esa línea, LCG señaló que "no identificaron un motor claro que pueda impulsar un crecimiento futuro en forma de V", como quiere el Gobierno: "El consumo está debilitado, las exportaciones no responden rápidamente a los incentivos derivados de la depreciación del tipo de cambio y esta ventaja competitiva está empezando a disiparse por el nivel de nominalidad. No esperamos un aumento significativo de las inversiones debido a un cambio en las expectativas. Y la tracción del gasto público se enfrenta al objetivo del gobierno de reducir el déficit fiscal". 

El Centro de Estudios Económicos Orlando Ferreres & Asociados concluyó: "No anticipamos mejoras para los próximos meses. El consumo interno permanecerá deprimido, el gasto público restringido al máximo, y la actividad seguirá siendo contractiva. Recién a mitad de año podríamos comenzar a ver un cambio de tendencia en los niveles de actividad e inversión, contingente a que el gobierno muestre resultados en el control de la inflación y en las variables fiscales y monetarias".