Por Agustín Maza

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La industria cayó 1,1% en octubre, mes en el que se endureció el acceso a divisas para importar insumos con la aplicación del Sistema de Importaciones de la República Argentina (Sira). Desde la UIA piden una revisión en los plazos que tienen las empresas para disponer de dólares para el pago a proveedores, mientras que en el Gobierno sostienen que no hay paradas de plantas. Los niveles de actividad sectorial quedaron solo 0,8% por encima de diciembre del 2021, lo que refleja el proceso de estancamiento que señalan los empresarios y las consultoras.

El Indec informó ayer que la producción industrial cayó 1,1% mensual, lo que podría haber sido la segunda baja consecutiva de no ser por la corrección al alza de septiembre, la cual igualmente marcó una suba de 0,1%. En la medición interanual, hubo un crecimiento del 3,5%, desacelerando 0,8 puntos respecto al mes previo, y acumuló una mejora 5,7% en el acumulado del año frente al mismo periodo del año anterior. 

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La consultora LCG destacó que con la caída de octubre y el comportamiento “errático” del sector, que intercaló alzas y bajas mensuales, el nivel de producción se encuentra 0,8% por encima de diciembre último, “reflejándose un estancamiento durante el año”. Teniendo en cuenta las dificultades de las fábricas para importar, que se suman a la baja en la inversión y un consumo que se resiente por los altos índices de inflación, la casa de estudios sostuvo: “El año cerrará con un crecimiento del 4,9%, por debajo del arrastre de 5,4% que dejó el 2021”.

Esta percepción es compartida por los industriales. Por caso, desde la UIA advierten por una “grave” situación en cuanto al acceso a insumos y piezas importadas con algunas paradas de planta. La situación se agravó, según indican, con la puesta en marcha del Sira el 17 de octubre. Los datos anticipados de noviembre dan cuenta de que las importaciones para el sector productivo continuaron en baja.

Una importante fuente del Comité Ejecutivo de la casa fabril dijo a BAE Negocios: “Si bien teníamos problemas desde julio con los cupos que impuso el BCRA, veníamos en buenos niveles, pero en los últimos meses la situación empeoró con la aplicación del Sira. Sería bueno que el Gobierno reduzca a la mitad los plazos de acceso a dólares para empresas grandes, que hoy es 180 días, y para pymes que es de 60 días. Como no tenemos crédito, hay conflicto con los proveedores en el exterior”.

En contraste, una fuente del Ministerio de Economía con fuerte injerencia en el comercio exterior sostuvo: “No hay fábricas paradas de forma masiva, de ninguna manera, y cuando existe alguna dificultad nos comunicamos directamente para solucionarla. En muchos casos hay empresas que especulan con la brecha cambiaria y no quieren perder el sobrestock que acumularon en el último tiempo, pero los dólares hay que priorizarlos para producir”. 

En ese sentido, la Secretaría de Industria y Desarrollo Productivo destacó que la producción se encuentra en niveles máximos de los últimos cinco años, aunque reconocieron una “ralentización”. Por otro lado, destacan que el empleo sectorial alcanzó en septiembre 1.230.000 puestos de trabajo, el valor más alto de los últimos cuatro años.

De todas formas, si bien los industriales reconocen la recuperación del empleo luego del impacto del período 2016-2019 al que se sumó la pandemia, advierten que cuesta conseguir mano de obra calificada. Esta problemática afecta principalmente a las pymes, sobre todo de sectores con altos niveles de tecnificación, que en muchos casos pusieron en marcha centros de capacitación dentro de sus fábricas.