Con producción y exportaciones en niveles récord el año pasado, el consumo de carne por habitantes es el más bajo en un siglo. La pregunta que surge, es quién gana con este esquema de negocios. Claramente el que pierde es el consumidor, que no accede al consumo de la proteína animal. Sin embargo, un análisis detallado de los costos y márgenes de la cadena cárnica revela que hay otros eslabones que son perjudicados por la especulación en la comercialización y la inflación importada de los commodities, una situación que se repite en la producción de otros rubros alimenticios con fuerte presencia de insumos dolarizados. Los frigoríficos, convertidos en empresas prestadoras de servicio empezaron a fijar el costo a la faena, dado que hacen competir el mercado interno con la exportación. El margen bruto de este eslabón cuadruplica la rentabilidad de los sectores de cría e invernada juntos. 

El precio de la carne en el mostrador reflejó en los últimos meses un fuerte ajuste de precios que encendió el debate entre los costos que enfrenta el sector y la necesidad de asegurar el abastecimiento de insumos con precios internacionales. Básicamente, el sector cárnico apunta contra el alza del maíz, que duplicó su valor por tonelada de proteína animal producida en el último año. También hubo un fuerte incremento en los costos de otros insumos, donde incide el dólar. Esta semana el Gobierno definió suspender por un mes la exportación de carne vacuna hasta lograr "poner en orden el mercado" mientras se analizan mecanismos de desacople de los precios internos respecto de las cotizaciones internacionales. 

En una primera aproximación, la cría participa del 35 por ciento en el precio de la carne al mostrador y el matarife del 5 por ciento; pero el criador necesita un año para poder vender un ternero y el matarife un día. Si se ajustan los márgenes mensuales por cantidad y unidades de negocio necesarias para satisfacer la demanda de un frigorífico, la participación en el negocio se explica de manera más precisa. 

De acuerdo con datos hasta abril de la Subsecretaría de Ganadería y Producción Animal, el margen bruto para la cría es de 338.043 pesos por mes para un establecimiento de 131 cabezas por año. En la invernada el margen es de 349.442 pesos mensuales para producción de 1373 cabezas anuales. En ambos casos, la rotación (veces que puede vender su producción) es de una sola por año, que es el tiempo de cría y engorde de los animales. El matarife, con un volumen promedio de 5000 cabezas por mes, es de 2.910.395 pesos mensuales, un 324 por ciento más que la ganancia bruta de un establecimiento de cría y de invernada sumadas. 

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El frigorífico tarda un día en faenarlo y convertirlo en dos medias reces y el carnicero demora dos días en venderlas. Esto le permite una rotación de 164 ventas al año. Por su parte, el carnicero, con un promedio de 480 ventas al año --equivalente a 2,5 reses por semana--, obtiene un margen bruto antes de impuestos de 91.303 pesos por mes. Los productores además sobrecargan los costos indirectos de los tiempos. Deben vender los novillitos gordos en su momento justo para la faena, dado que si no, comienza una etapa donde los animales se engrasan (perdiendo calidad) y cada vez resulta más costoso su mantenimiento diario. Esto les quita margen de negociación frente a los frigoríficos.

 

 

En el país hay 265.326 unidades productivas de cría e invernada, el 46 por ciento de cría pura y 2147 feedlot. Estos sistemas ganadores tienen una rentabilidad de entre 3,5 y 4,5 por ciento en La Pampa-San Luis. Pasado a pesos constantes, tienen una rentabilidad por kilo vendido de 95,09 pesos; o de 9047 pesos por hectárea. En dólares por hectárea la cría en la Cuenca del Salado se mantiene en sus niveles históricos, entre 150 y 200 dólares por hectárea, y se acerca a los márgenes de fines de 2015. El margen de los feedlot recuperó en los últimos meses, pero viene en franca retirada como tendencia desde 2014.

El principal impacto en la producción, principalmente en la invernada, es el precio del maíz. "En octubre del año pasado el margen bruto de la invernada dio negativo producto de la alta relación compra/venta combinada con la suba del maíz. En los meses siguientes, el maíz no mejoró los márgenes brutos y en marzo, la baja del maíz permitió a la invernada recuperar márgenes", sostienen desde el Ministerio de Agricultura.

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El maíz es utilizado como materia prima en sus procesos de transformación, básicamente para la producción de proteína animal como carne de cerdo, pollo, huevos, leche y feedlot (engorde a corral). El costo del maíz por tonelada producida de carne aumentó un 102 por ciento por tonelada, mientras que el salario del peón lo hizo un 36 por ciento en los últimos doce meses (febrero/febrero). A esto se suman otros incrementos de insumos dolarizados, como los fertilizantes o los alambres (por el precio del hierro) con aumentos por encima del 100 por ciento. 

La restauración de un umbral de retenciones más acorde a los altos valores históricos que muestran los granos podría ser una herramienta fundamental para desacoplar precios internos respecto de las cotizaciones internacionales. La campaña de maíz cerró el año pasado con un margen bruto por hectárea un 73,7 por ciento por encima de la campaña anterior (2018/19). 

El informe detalla que los precios de la carne al mostrador crecieron menos que los precios en el Mercado de Liniers en el arranque del año, debido al menor consumo interno de los primeros meses. "Podría indicarse que en los últimos tres, los precios del ganado y la carne volvieron a alcanzar la curva de la inflación, lo que no sucedía desde 2017", explicaron desde la cartera que conduce Luis Basterra.

Los costos para la cría se ubican en 96 pesos (extrapolado a valores constantes de diciembre de 2020) por kilo, mientras que el precio actual es de 141 pesos, lo que arroja una diferencia positiva de 47 por ciento. Este margen sólo superado por 2015, cuando el valor de venta era de 145 pesos por kilo de 2012. Entre mediados de 2018 y mediados de 2019 fue negativo, con su peor momento a fines de2018, al registrarse un precio neto promedio de 81 pesos y un costo de 92 pesos. La invernada se mantuvo con bajos márgenes pero siempre positivos, mientras en feedlot es negativo desde mediados de 2018.

La relación compra-venta de carne en febrero para la producción fue la más alta de los últimos años.  Los márgenes brutos de invernada están mejor que en el segundo semestre del año pasado, pero "los que suplementan con maíz soportan costos muy elevados con este insumo críticos". Las unidades de cría presentan resultados iguales o superiores a los brutos de invernada, algo que tampoco es habitual.